One Month After the U.S. Elections: Analysis of the Current Crypto Market Situation
The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. elections triggered an impulsive rally across crypto assets, with BTC, DOGE, and XRP leading the growth. In this analysis, we’ll examine the current market situation and outline possible future scenarios.
BTCUSDT
On the 4-hour BTCUSDT chart, from the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory, the asset completed an upward impulse within the third wave, achieving new all-time highs, and is now transitioning into a corrective fourth wave within the overall upward trend.
The nature of the fourth wave is less predictable due to the wide variety of its possible structures. Therefore, we consider two main scenarios:
1. Classic ABC Zigzag
2. ABCDE Triangle(fig.1)
Both scenarios are highly likely to result in a continuation of the uptrend in the fifth wave of the Elliott sequence.
Primary Scenario: ABC Correction
To confirm this scenario, the market needs to break through the local low from December 9 at $94,150, which would indicate a decline in wave A. In this case, the new corrective target will be $87,545, corresponding to the 0.38 Fibonacci level from the third Elliott wave.
Alternative Scenario: ABCDE Triangle
Confirmation of this scenario requires visually identifying three triangle edges (A, B, C)(fig.2) on the chart using the Williams Fractals indicator. The key corrective levels remain unchanged:
• $94,150 — $87,545
• 0.23–0.38 Fibonacci levels from the third wave.
DOGEUSDT
DOGE, Elon Musk’s favorite cryptocurrency, has surged by 265% within just one month of trading since the election results began coming in. The wave analysis of DOGEUSDT mirrors the structure seen in BTCUSDT. Most likely, the asset has completed the third Elliott wave and has entered the corrective fourth wave on the daily timeframe.
Expectations for DOGEUSDT
We anticipate a further correction for DOGE to lower price levels, in line with the Fibonacci retracement from the third impulse wave. The key price level of $0.33 (0.38 Fibonacci) may act as a consolidation point before a new wave of growth, expected to begin in the first quarter of 2025.
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has acted as a strong catalyst for positive momentum in the crypto market. BTC and DOGE are now entering a corrective phase that is necessary to allow investors and traders to rebalance their portfolios before the next upward movement. A renewed uptrend is anticipated in 2025.
